This appears in this week's Golwg:
Apparently, the coalition government is in trouble. Ieuan Wyn Jones is unhappy at some Labour MPs’ attitude toward extra powers. Adam Price is aggrieved that Peter Hain will not lead a second “Yes For Wales” campaign. Plaid, we are told, are preparing to dump Labour and revive the rainbow coalition. It is all good stuff, reminiscent of the heady days of early summer 2007 when the composition of the future government of Wales swung maniacally from one side to another. It is also almost certainly a confection.
Plaid’s first set of elections as a party of government looms. The party knows it needs to work harder to nourish the grass roots, so that they can mobilise the vote. And it knows nothing energises Plaid’s base like the prospect of a Welsh Parliament. The trouble is that the strategy is to first establish Plaid as competent governors, which in itself means having to take the icky decisions that disillusion foot soldiers and weaken campaigning capability. Just ask Labour.
Plaid is not the first party whose base needs a different message to the voters at large. The antidote is the appearance of good old spat with Labour’s so-called Unionist faction, and with it a suggestion that Plaid’s leadership is itching to get cracking on the referendum campaign. The party’s strategists correctly deduced that the Welsh media would fall over itself for a coalition splits story, and that the Lib Dems and Tories would obligingly crank things up.
So the Party of Wales’s spinners can congratulate themselves on a job well done. And they are right to take precautions against a lacklustre local campaign. As Labour found in Blaenau Gwent, nobody really knows how real a threat a “people’s voice” movement in the heartlands can be until the ballot boxes are prised open. Llais Gwynedd’s challenge could evaporate, or it could deliver a real kicking. Either way, a moribund rank-and-file only play into this kind of opposition’s narrative. A jolt of constitutional agitation helps deals with that.
The One Wales government is not in trouble. In fact, it may be stronger now than it has ever been. It suits all sides and all party factions to focus on governing now and either build up to the referendum slowly or put it off, depending on the point of view. Mid term elections are merely one novel chicane on the coalition road. It seems Plaid have steered their way neatly through this one.
Update: Peter Black detects further manufacture in today's Western Mail. If so, this one is a good deal less successful; the DFM comes out of it looking weak.
Apparently, the coalition government is in trouble. Ieuan Wyn Jones is unhappy at some Labour MPs’ attitude toward extra powers. Adam Price is aggrieved that Peter Hain will not lead a second “Yes For Wales” campaign. Plaid, we are told, are preparing to dump Labour and revive the rainbow coalition. It is all good stuff, reminiscent of the heady days of early summer 2007 when the composition of the future government of Wales swung maniacally from one side to another. It is also almost certainly a confection.
Plaid’s first set of elections as a party of government looms. The party knows it needs to work harder to nourish the grass roots, so that they can mobilise the vote. And it knows nothing energises Plaid’s base like the prospect of a Welsh Parliament. The trouble is that the strategy is to first establish Plaid as competent governors, which in itself means having to take the icky decisions that disillusion foot soldiers and weaken campaigning capability. Just ask Labour.
Plaid is not the first party whose base needs a different message to the voters at large. The antidote is the appearance of good old spat with Labour’s so-called Unionist faction, and with it a suggestion that Plaid’s leadership is itching to get cracking on the referendum campaign. The party’s strategists correctly deduced that the Welsh media would fall over itself for a coalition splits story, and that the Lib Dems and Tories would obligingly crank things up.
So the Party of Wales’s spinners can congratulate themselves on a job well done. And they are right to take precautions against a lacklustre local campaign. As Labour found in Blaenau Gwent, nobody really knows how real a threat a “people’s voice” movement in the heartlands can be until the ballot boxes are prised open. Llais Gwynedd’s challenge could evaporate, or it could deliver a real kicking. Either way, a moribund rank-and-file only play into this kind of opposition’s narrative. A jolt of constitutional agitation helps deals with that.
The One Wales government is not in trouble. In fact, it may be stronger now than it has ever been. It suits all sides and all party factions to focus on governing now and either build up to the referendum slowly or put it off, depending on the point of view. Mid term elections are merely one novel chicane on the coalition road. It seems Plaid have steered their way neatly through this one.
Update: Peter Black detects further manufacture in today's Western Mail. If so, this one is a good deal less successful; the DFM comes out of it looking weak.
10 comments:
I don't think talking about what Plaid want is your forte!
Am I wrong?
Whilst individual Plaid AMs who are now cabinet ministers might like the trappings of power,Plaid as a party was created to deliver some form of self government for Wales.Being a member of Plaid Cymru therefore should mean that you believe that Wales and the Welsh people will be better off in an Irish Republic situation rather than part of the UK. The coalition therefore has to be judged on how it will enable Plaid to progress down the route of further self government. It isn't about showing the Welsh voter that Plaid ministers can deliver policies. A key element was therefore the promise by Labour to work towards a referendum on further powers in the near future. The problem with this promise is that for many Labour members the coalition was a matter of expediency rather than principle. It's main aim was to keep Labour in power and stop any coalition which included the Tories. The unions in particular were frightened that a coalition which excluded Labour might actually tackle public sector reform. The problem for Plaid is that Cardiff Labour cannot control its grass roots. In many traditional areas in any future referendum the best the yes campaign can hope for is that Labour activists will do nothing as many did in 1979.In other areas the danger will be that despite not having the finances the anti devolution campaigners will feed on the anti politics mood which is abroad at the moment. Only time will tell whether Plaid made the right decision last year. For most Welsh voters they haven't made much of an impact in government. Given the unpopularity of Labour at a UK level Plaid should do well in traditional Labour areas in the valleys in May. If on the other hand the backlash against Labour benefits People's Voice candidates and other independents then many Plaid activists will be asking what is the point of the coalition except to boost the ego of some pretty mediocre politicians.
Hey Norm -what about the alleged Labour dirty tricks campaign against IWJ, have you heard anything.Check my post today
VM
Vernon (good pseudonym by the way) - I don't think anyting is sayin that Plaid have dropped the goal of independence, merely that they believe it will be better secured by a period spend establishing themselves as a competent party of government.
Personally, I find it difficult to believe that the rainbow coalition would have attempted any serious public sector reform, but we may never know.
You make a good point about anti-politics.
VM - I read it. I can only imagine the Plaid source who planted the story must really have it in for IWJ - why else would s/he want to portray him as so utterly weak?
Another odd Plaid spun story in today's Western mail which suggests that the party will not do as well in May's Council election as they should do given the present poor poll ratings for the Labour party. Poor Plaid performances in both Caerphilly and RCT together with problems in North Wales will be a clear indication that the party has gained absolutely nothing from the coalition deal except a promise which is not worth the paper it is written. It will also be interesting to see what happens to the Plaid vote in the Vale where they have been in coalition with Labour.How many Plaid voters will stick with the party when often their main motivation for voting in the past has been a desire to stop Labour at any cost. The idea of proving that you are a competent party by being in government might have made some sense in 1924 when Labour took office for the first time it doesn't make sense in the 21st century when you are a junior members of a coalition. Despite the spin Plaid isn't on the verge of a breakthrough in Welsh politics. Ieuan Wyn Jones still comes across as pretty weak and ineffectual. The assessment made by Plaid a few years ago that he just didn't have what it takes to be a Leader still holds true. Despite the record number of appearances on the Welsh media most voters would still be hard pressed to name a single Plid politician with the exception of possibly Wigley. It will be interesting to see what line Plaid candidates spin on the door step in May's election. They can't blame the Assembly government for the problems because they are part of it. Too savage an attack on the the UK Labour government and the local Labour council could see any chance of a referendum before 2011 disappear completely off the political radar screen.
I agree Norm may be Plaids trying to get him out.
Never has impressed me.
NM,
You give us in Plaid far more media manipulation credibility than we deserve. Time will tell how this coalition affects Plaid but in terms of local activity, it is generally healthy across Wales. It is also too early to tell how the Council elections go, but who is to say whether London or Cardiff's politics will have a greater effect on May 1st. Perhaps the Tories lead in Westminster may bring in a flood of Tory Councillors across Wales? They will certainly win seats from Labour in Cardiff, where the former leading group will lose some of its best performers in the north of the city
I think the comments about IWJ are from individuals who wanted him to fall on his face and are frustrated that he has been very impressive. In terms of WAG Ministers out of their depth, I'm afraid that Jane Hutt's performance last week defending an underfunding for the new Foundation phase, reminded me of her dire performances as the Health Minister. I believe that she is sincere but in front of the media, she is an unmitigated disaster.
It is incredible that when a story like the Western Mail's comes out, it is regarded as some sort of political plot to bolster/ discredit a Minister
Has anyone considered if it is actualy the truth and that this is all actually happening within the Assembly Government or have we all become so cynical that we automaticaly see such reporting as the actions of spin doctors?
Anon 9.14
I'm all in favour of avoiding over-interpretation. But when a story emerges that is all anonymous attributions (Martin Shipton's piece even credits "a political source", the most vague such attribution I can recall) one has to look for the motives behind the story.
This is a story made up of two components: that the DFM's diary is being overloaded (which his office denies) and that Leighton Andrews does not regard IWJ as his boss.
Taking these two elements at face value as you suggest prompts only one rational response: so what?
Therefore, for there to be any news value one has to assume (and indeed the story hints heavily) that there are darker motives at work.
What are those motives? Some suggest it is to continue the appearance of friction with Labour that I discuss in the column. All I say is that if that is the case it has backfired and made the DFM look like he is not in control of his office or portfolio, neither of which appear to be the case.
The other more machiavellian interpretation is that the "political source" was out to damage IWJ by making him look weak.
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